Daily Killings in the nation Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. However, public safety specialists have advised that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.