From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Within the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.