Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.